Winners, Losers & What’s Next on the Road to Net Zero

27 Oct

Amy with Emily Nurse, Dave Jones and Ben Westerman

October 2025

Featuring: Emily Nurse (Head of Net Zero, Climate Change Committee), Dave Jones (Global Insights Programme Director, Ember) and Ben Westerman (Director of Policy & Advocacy, Electrify Britain).

Last October we held our first Net Zero check-in - “Net Zero UK: Progress or Pipe Dream? “ We said the UK didn’t need more targets — it needed delivery. Twelve months on, we asked: what’s really changed, what’s still stuck, and where should founders, investors and policymakers focus next?

Two takeaways cut through the data, the slides and the debate:
- Make electricity cheaper than gas — stop taxing the fuel of the transition.
- Keep AND grow public engagement by making the benefits felt (lower bills, comfort, jobs), not just argued.

Everything else ladders up to those two.

The UK picture: progress is real, but pace must double - Climate Change Committee

Emily Nurse’s indicators show progress — but not at the speed required.

Emissions are ~50% below 1990 and fell again in 2024. Power is the success story: coal has vanished, gas generation continues to decline, renewables dominate new build.
Transport is now the largest emitter. EVs are up and essential to the 2030 NDC (-68% vs 1990), but freight and aviation offset some of that progress.
Buildings are lagging badly. Heat pumps grew ~56% year-on-year but still serve only ~1% of homes. Astonishingly, 71% of new homes in 2024 still installed fossil heating systems — locking in retrofit costs for decades.
Aviation has overtaken power for the first time since records began: as travel rebounds post-Covid and electricity generation decarbonises, aviation’s share of total emissions has risen — a warning sign that demand growth could outpace abatement technology.

Unlocking the next phase means accelerating planning and consenting for wind and solar, tackling grid connections, and — above all — fixing the electricity-to-gas price ratio so electrification makes sense for heat, vans, and homes, not just cars.

The global power lens: solar & batteries are rewriting the system - Ember

Dave Jones zoomed out to the global context before bringing it home:

Solar is scaling exponentially; wind is growing steadily; coal and gas are in decline in many major markets. Renewables overtook coal generation globally in the first half of 2024.
Batteries are the quiet revolution. Grid-scale battery costs fell by around 40% last year, and similar declines are expected again. Containerised systems now offer safer, longer-life storage with 4–8-hour durations — transforming how grids balance renewables and reduce curtailment.
Public sentiment matters as much as technology. Dave warned that “we risk losing people unless we reframe Net Zero around tangible benefits — lower bills, better tech, stronger economies.”
Yet the UK is trying to do this with some of the world’s highest electricity prices. Until we rebalance costs, the advantages of EVs and heat pumps will remain muted: home charging saves money; motorway charging doesn’t.

Electrification on the ground: people must feel the win - Electrify Britain

Ben Westerman connected the dots from Electrify Britain’s State of Electrification — a national tracker monitoring how far and how fast the UK is electrifying homes, transport and energy.

EVs: one in five new cars; over 90% of owners wouldn’t return to petrol or diesel. Access and charging costs need attention, but satisfaction is high.
Solar: a genuine household success — bills fall, stories spread, adoption accelerates.
Heat pumps: the weak link — economics still don’t stack up while electricity remains expensive relative to gas.
Policy focus is too narrow: the government is leaning too heavily on individual heat pumps; we also need district heating, communal heat pumps, and local heat networks, particularly for renters and flats.

“Public engagement isn’t a comms problem — it’s a wallet problem. People will feel differently when bills come down.”

Quick-fire round: targets, blockers, levers

Will we hit 2030/2050?
(For context: the 2030 Clean Power target means at least 95% of Great Britain’s electricity from clean sources by 2030, with unabated gas used only for backup. The 2050 Climate Change Act target is legally binding and requires the UK to cut all greenhouse gas emissions to net zero — a 100% reduction from 1990 levels.)

CCC (Emily): On course if policy steps up now — EVs rising; buildings must finally move.
Ember (Dave): Clean Power 2030 is tight without changes to price and delivery; watch bill impacts.
EB (Ben): Tech is ready; consent is fragile unless households see gains.

Biggest blockers

Electricity vs gas price ratio (all three agreed).
Upfront costs & installer capacity for heat.
Planning, consenting and grid connections.
Political volatility and short-termism.

Most effective lever

Rebalance legacy policy costs off electricity (and/or fund from general taxation) to flip household economics for heat pumps and accelerate electrification across transport and industry.
Plus: clearer communication, stable rules, faster grid delivery.

What should Earth Setters work on next?

1️⃣ Price rebalancing & tariff innovation

Push for levy reform to move legacy policy costs off electricity.
Develop time-of-use tariffs and local flexibility markets that make heat as attractive as EV charging.

2️⃣ Heat at scale

Support district heating and communal heat-pump systems for flats and renters.
Simplify finance bundles that combine insulation and low-carbon heat.

3️⃣ Planning, connections & storage

Back solutions that cut grid queue times, streamline permitting, and deploy 4–8-hour batteries to reduce curtailment and price volatility.

4️⃣ Public engagement that feels like savings

Champion zero-bills homes, school and hospital solar, and community energy projects.
Tell stories about lower bills and comfort — not abstract carbon metrics.

5️⃣ Industrial realism & competitiveness

Plug UK firms into battery and EV supply chains, including containerised battery assembly.
Be pragmatic about imports where they lower system costs and speed deployment.

(Order reflects consensus: fix prices first; crack heat for the mainstream; unblock delivery; keep the public with us; stay competitive.)

The uncomfortable (but useful) bits

71% of new homes in 2024 still had fossil boilers — embedding retrofit costs for decades. Regulation is the low-regret fix.
CFD strike prices and CCS costs directly affect bills. The cost of capital and project sequencing (wires + flexibility alongside new generation) determine whether consumers experience Net Zero as savings or surcharges.
Fairness gaps — renters, motorway EV users, small businesses — will decide whether consent holds. Smart design and targeting matter as much as technology.

Bottom line

We’re not short of technology or targets — we’re short of economics and delivery.
Rebalance electricity prices, finish the boring (vital) plumbing — planning, connections, storage — and keep the public with us by making savings visible. Do that, and the rest of the transition flies.