Slow Burn: Why We Can’t Quit Coal

10 Jan

January 2026

Featuring: Lucy Shaw, writer and advisor on energy and infrastructure investments at Gordon Mgmt and Sam Geall, China and climate policy expert, Associate Fellow at Chatham House

Coal was meant to be over. Yet global coal consumption remains close to record highs, new capacity continues to be added in parts of the world, and coal still accounts for roughly a third of global electricity generation and a disproportionately large share of global emissions.

At the first Earth Set of 2026, Slow Burn: Why We Can’t Quit Coal, we set out to examine not whether coal is bad - that much is settled - but why it persists, and what that persistence tells us about the political economy of the energy transition.

Coal’s scale, and why percentage share misleads

Lucy Shaw opened with a reframing that set the tone for the evening. While coal’s share of global electricity has declined over time, its absolute use has not fallen in step. In recent years, global coal consumption has continued to edge upward, reaching around 8.8 billion tonnes annually, roughly one tonne for every person on the planet.

This distinction matters. Carbon emissions track absolute volumes, not percentages. Coal still contributes an estimated 37% of global carbon emissions, more than oil or gas, and remains the single largest driver of climate change.

Coal also carries severe health costs. On a per-megawatt-hour basis, it is the deadliest major fuel source, contributing substantially to air-pollution-related mortality worldwide. These costs are rarely captured in energy prices or political debate.

China’s coal paradox

Sam Geall then turned to China, the country that most shapes coal’s global future.

China is decarbonising at extraordinary speed. Between 2021 and 2024, its wind and solar capacity doubled to more than 1,400 GW, battery storage tripled, and in 2025 renewable capacity surpassed coal capacity for the first time. No other country has built clean energy at this scale or pace.

And yet coal capacity and coal consumption have also continued to grow.

This is not contradiction so much as strategy. In China, coal is increasingly treated as a domestically controlled, storable security hedge within a rapidly expanding electricity system. It plays a role analogous to gas in European systems, shaped by concerns over energy security, exposure to imported fuels, grid stability, provincial politics, and the Communist Party’s overriding priority: economic and social stability.

Coal, in this framing, is not being rescued. It is being managed down — slowly, unevenly and politically — as part of a larger system transition.

Coal as politics, not technology

A recurring theme was that coal is rarely sustained by technology alone. It persists because it is embedded in jobs, municipal finances, provincial power structures and cultural identity.

Lucy described visiting coal museums across the UK, the US and China, and being struck by how similar the narratives are everywhere: heroism, labour movements, sacrifice, and community pride. Coal mining communities were not just centres of employment; they were social ecosystems. When coal disappears, the loss is economic, political and cultural, and can echo for decades.

This helps explain why coal remains such a potent symbol in contemporary politics, from “beautiful clean coal” rhetoric in the US to calls to reopen mines in parts of the UK. These narratives are rarely about energy economics. They are about dignity, identity and the credibility of transition promises.

Beyond power: the harder half of coal

The discussion also challenged the tendency to focus solely on coal-fired electricity. Roughly a third of coal use globally sits outside the power sector, particularly in steelmaking and industrial heat.

While alternatives such as electric arc furnaces are growing, already accounting for around 30% of global steel production, industrial coal use remains one of the most difficult parts of the transition. Several speakers noted the risk that coal use could decline in power generation only to re-emerge in other, sometimes even more carbon-intensive, applications.

What actually moves coal off the system?

The evening resisted simple solutions, but several conclusions emerged:

Coal exits are rarely driven by climate policy alone; economics, market design, air-quality regulation and energy security often matter more.
Replacing coal requires replacing not just energy, but flexibility, system services and political reassurance.
“Just transition” must move beyond slogans to credible packages that address jobs, municipal revenues, and local power structures as well as realistic timescales.

Looking ahead

For those new to Earth Set, this session reflected our core aim: to create space for rigorous, informed discussion on the hard realities of climate transition - and to follow that with the conversations and connections that help people move from insight to action.

The discussion was filmed and will be released as the first episode of Earth Set Podcast: Series 2, launching in February 2026.

A fitting way to begin the year, and a reminder of just how much work remains beneath the surface.